Backtesting the stock trading data of U.S. House members from Waiker’s politician transaction dataset revealed that many U.S. politicians achieved market-beating returns in 2023. The dataset allows for the examination of returns by individual politicians and their affiliated parties. The results suggest that certain politicians may have benefited from an informational advantage inaccessible to the general public. Below are some particularly noteworthy statistics:

1. Key Returns and Performance

The top 5 House members by stock trading returns in 2023 are as follows:

• Democratic Rep. Brian Higgins: 238.9%

• Republican Rep. Mark Green: 122.2%

• Republican Rep. Garret Graves: 107.6%

• Republican Rep. David Rouzer: 105.6%

• Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton: 80%

Additionally House Speaker Nancy Pelosi recorded a return of 65.5%, ranking among the higher-performing members.

Given that the S&P 500 Index recorded an annual return of 23.8% in 2023, these results indicate substantial outperformance. Notably, Democratic Rep. Brian Higgins achieved a remarkable return of 238.9%, a performance level far beyond what most average investors could expect.

2. Party-Based Sectoral Investment Trends

 

 

From a party perspective:

• Democratic House members recorded an average return of approximately 33.0%,

• Republican House members achieved an average return of 19.0%.

The higher returns of the ruling Democratic Party members are analyzed as a result of the government promoting policies to support sustainable technological innovation. Democratic lawmakers tend to focus their investments in sectors such as artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, and renewable energy technologies.

The report shows that lawmakers have a tendency to concentrate their investments in specific industries. Notably, the technology and energy industries were the sectors that garnered the most interest among politicians throughout 2023, reflecting the policy differences and interests of each party in their trading tendencies.

Conclusion

Politician transaction data is not merely intriguing but serves as a valuable tool for investors to develop actionable strategies. Politicians are often directly or indirectly exposed to critical information related to economic policies, legislative changes, and industry regulations. Analyzing trading patterns based on this information offers practical insights for predicting market trends.

By studying the industries that politicians frequently trade in or the timing of their concentrated transactions, investors can better anticipate which sectors might experience future growth. Actively analyzing such data can enhance investors’ ability to predict significant market changes and adapt their strategies accordingly.